U.S. sanctions against Rusal, and ingot price firmed on the news, biggest gains is coming.The ingot price is forecast to be up to RMB 16,000 in June.
This week, the Middle East’s trade situation has eased and trade frictions between China and the United States have cooled down. The sentiment in the commodity market has picked up somewhat. The news of the sanctions imposed by the United States on the Rusal continues to ferment, and LME hit a new high in recent years, with Shanghai Aluminum continuing to rise.
The average price of aluminum ingot on the CNAL was RMB 14,460 /ton, which was RMB 480 more than the previous week, with a weekly increase of 3.43%.
From the demand side, compared with the first quarter, demand was strong in the second quarter. On the one hand, the United States is the main importer of electrolytic aluminum in China, and Rusal event will squeeze a certain amount of demand from the US market (it is not yet considered the trade friction between China and the United States).
More importantly, as the temperature rises, domestic construction projects and factories have started working one after another. The aluminum profiles, buildings, transportation and transportation facilities, electricity, and industrial aluminum materials have all entered the peak season. The traditional peak season of electrolytic aluminum has come. The demand is good.
From the supply side, the operating producing capacity is low, and the supply increase is less than expected. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price is not high, about RMB 14,000 / ton, it’s at the bottom now, due to the winter production cut and the desire to resume production of electrolytic aluminum plant is not expected to be so high.
Therefore, it is predicted that the highest aluminum price in June will reach RMB 16,000!
